Why did the lifepo4 battery sector plummet across the board?

Of the 76 companies in the lithium battery sector, only 3 have slightly increased stock prices, 41 companies have fallen by more than 5%, and 12 companies have fallen limit, including lithium battery cathode material leader Rongbai Technology; electrolyte leader Tianci materials, polyfluorine Many, Tianhua shares; lithium mining companies Tianhua Super Clean, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group; lithium battery upstream leader Huayou Cobalt, etc.

 

Two speculations about the reason for the limit drop

 

Regarding the sharp drop in the lithium battery sector today, some investors believe that the recent new energy sector is too hot, and a proper correction should be made. There are also two different speculations about the cause of the lithium battery sector’s plummet. Speculation one is that the plummet is related to Yongtai Technology’s announcement that it plans to invest in the construction of an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and 1,200 tons of related additives and 50,000 tons of hydrogen fluoride. Related to acid industrialization projects. The second guess is that the fuse is that the 950 million shares of the lithium battery leader Ningde era have lifted the ban. In the case of overheating of the lithium battery sector, any good and bad will be magnified.

 

Regarding the first speculation, it is mainly from the perspective of today’s lithium battery electrolyte sector that leads the decline, and the leading companies Tianci Materials, Polyfluoride, and Tianci Stock Limit analysis. Lithium hexafluorophosphate, as the core raw material of the electrolyte, is the key to the production of lithium batteries. Its inventory At the lowest level in the same period in the past three years.

 

Recently, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has repeatedly hit new highs in the past four years, and the latest market price has reached 315,000 yuan/ton. In less than half a year, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has nearly tripled. Compared with the third quarter of last year, the price was almost four times that of the time.

 

The share prices of leading lithium hexafluorophosphate companies, such as Tianci Materials, Duo Fluoride, and Skyrim, have risen more than three times in the past year. But this time Yongtai Technology invested in the construction of 20,000 tons of production capacity, investors believe that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate may decline.

 

Regarding the second speculation, it mainly revolves around the Ningde era of the first trillion-dollar lithium battery leader on the GEM. On the evening of June 8, Ningde Times announced that it would lift the restriction on the sale of 952 million shares before the initial public offering on June 11, 2021, accounting for 40.88% of the company’s total shares; the actual shares that can be listed and traded this time The number is approximately 673 million shares, accounting for 28.88% of the company's total shares.

 

Unexpectedly, on the day the ban was lifted, Ningde Times’ stock price not only did not fall, but reached a new high. It once climbed to an all-time high of 457.84 yuan/share, and closed at 451.98 yuan/share on the same day, up 6.17%, and the total market value reached 1.05 trillion yuan.

 

Today, CATL and Hangke Technology lifted the previously effective 480 million yuan lithium battery production equipment contract. CATL’s share price plunged 5.58% to close at 420.18 yuan per share, with the latest market value of 978.8 billion yuan.

 

There is still room for rise in the share price of the lithium battery sector. The market has always been controversial, and the trillion-dollar Ningde era is just on the cusp of controversy. Previously, institutions had diametrically opposed opinions on their market expectations.

 

On May 31, CATL’s stock price surged 5.98% to a closing price of 424.5 yuan per share. The market value broke through the trillion mark for the first time. Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating to “low allocation” with a target price of only 251 yuan .

 

On June 15, the research report of Soochow Securities believed that the industry boom of CATL was far beyond expectations, and the company predicted that orders exceeded previous expectations, capacity expansion accelerated, and future growth was more certain, giving it a price-earnings ratio of 75 times in 2022. , Corresponding to the target price of 607.5 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.

 

On the one hand, international financial institutions believe that the Ningde era’s target price should be a 40% discount to the current stock price. On the other hand, domestic brokerages believe that it can rise by another 44%. The opinions of professional institutions have such huge differences. It is no wonder that lithium batteries The sector is always up and down.

 

New signals in the lithium battery industry

 

Recently, there is another important signal regarding the lithium battery industry. The China Automotive portable power station Industry Innovation Alliance recently released monthly power battery data for May 2021, showing that the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries is as high as 8.8GWh, accounting for 63.6% of the total power battery output. The output of super ternary lithium battery is 5GWh.

 

This is the first time in the past three years that lithium iron phosphate batteries have surpassed ternary batteries in terms of output. At the same time, the loading of lifepo4 battery also increased by 458.6% year-on-year, but it is still slightly lower than that of ternary lithium batteries.

 

Lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries are the two major technical routes for power batteries. The difference between the two lies in the battery cathode materials. Although the ternary battery has the advantages of high energy density and long cruising range, its thermal stability is poor, and the requirements for the battery management system are very high, and it is prone to spontaneous combustion under high temperature conditions. Lithium iron phosphate has the advantages of safety, high energy density, long cycle life, and 15% lower cost than ternary batteries.

 

According to industry analysts, after nearly two years of technological innovation, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been able to meet the cruising range requirements of most passenger cars from 400 kilometers to 600 kilometers, and the price is more advantageous than ternary batteries. The performance of ternary batteries in bad weather is better, but the areas where new energy vehicles are promoted more quickly are mostly concentrated in provinces and cities with better climatic conditions.

 

At present, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been adopted by mainstream models such as BYD Han, Tesla Model 3 standard battery life, Hongguang MINI EV, Xiaopeng P7, and Tesla Model Y, Weilai, and Dai The first-tier overseas car companies such as Muller and Volkswagen have also been reported to have plans to adopt lifepo4 battery.

 

There are also several listed companies that have plans to invest in lithium iron phosphate projects this year.

 

Among them, Linyang Energy announced in June that it intends to build a 10GWh energy storage battery project with an annual output of 10GWh in a joint venture of 3 billion yuan with Yiwei Lithium Energy, which mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries; Baichuan shares announced in April that it plans to build an annual output of 20,000 tons. Iron phosphate, 6000 tons of lithium iron phosphate projects; Defang Nano announced in March that it plans to invest in the construction of a 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production base project; China Nuclear Titanium announced in February that it plans to spend 12.1 billion yuan to build 500,000 tons of phosphoric acid Iron-lithium project (including 100,000 tons of construction in the first phase).